The Icarus Dilemma

Billy Napier is out. Fired. Gone. And the vultures that feed on fading coaching tenures have already found new hunting grounds with Tallahassee and Auburn teeming with fresh prey.

But for now, all eyes are on Gainesville. Inside Florida’s UAA, the next move is already being gamed out. And outside? The crowd’s looking north toward Oxford, Mississippi, watching and waiting for Lane Kiffin - visor tilted - to make his next move.

Kiffin’s always been an Icarus type. Big dreams. Bigger risks. The kind of coach who builds his own wings, straps them on, and dares you to tell him he can’t fly. The only question now is whether he’s finally found his Daedalus moment and the wisdom to stay just below the heat.

Gator fans are already sold. Their message boards read like open love letters: “Come home, Lane.” “Bring the visor.” “Save us.” And it makes sense. In five and a half seasons, Kiffin has turned Ole Miss from an SEC opening act into a headline show with the league’s third-winningest program behind only Georgia and Alabama. In the process, he’s become:

  • The fastest Rebel coach ever to hit 50 wins (68 games)

  • One of only three active SEC coaches with 100+ career wins (along with Kirby Smart and Brian Kelly)

  • The nation’s offensive kingpin at 502.9 yards per game since 2020

  • Owner of three 10+ win seasons and two New Year’s Six bowl trips (Sugar ’22, Peach ’24) in the last four years

  • And the undisputed “Portal King,” with four straight Top-5 transfer hauls

But no rings. No banners. No playoff runs. Lane’s a king, but one without a crown.

As for Florida, they seemingly have everything. The money, the brand, the recruiting goldmine. The Gator logo still carries national juice. By all logic, they should be a perennial powerhouse. But only Spurrier and Meyer ever actually made it work. Everyone else has been a bad fit wearing a big logo.

And that’s where this story gets interesting — because fit might be the thing keeping Kiffin from flying too close to the sun this time.

His track record is a trail of scorch marks. Fired by Al Davis. One-and-done at Tennessee. Tarmac’d at USC. Publicly roasted by Saban. Fit and Kiffin? Oil and water.

Until Oxford.

Somehow, Joey Freshwater found peace in Mississippi. He’s older now, a little wiser, and just self-aware enough to laugh at the chaos he used to chase. His trolling is fun, not petty.

Perhaps more important, his kids are rooted there. Daughter Landry once kept him from bolting to Auburn, and son Knox is a rising star at Oxford High. He’s experiencing something rare for a major college football coach - comfort.

And Ole Miss has given him the keys to the kingdom. Chancellor Glenn Boyce and AD Keith Carter don’t just support him, they orbit around his vision. NIL? They were first to the fight because Kiffin saw it coming. The Rebels might not be the biggest brand in the SEC, but they move like one - fast, fearless and flexible.

Still…no crown. No playoff. Not yet. This year could change that. Ole Miss is still in the mix with Oklahoma looming large this Saturday. But if they stumble again, don’t be shocked if Icarus starts eyeing that Florida sun one more time.

KiffyStakes will be here tracking every move. We picked a silly name for the silly season, and it’s about to get gloriously stupid. Strap in.

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The Daily Stakes - 10/22: Setting the Stage